Why Wall Street is calling Apple’s September release the “super cycle”

J.P. Morgan provides analysis on what we can expect from Apple this September.

Artist Gabor Balogh conception of potential iPhone 8 design.

We’ve covered the iPhone rumor mill here and here over the last few months. Now, six months out from the release of the 10th anniversary iPhone, Wall Street is assessing how big the opportunity will be for Apple.

New analysis from J.P. Morgan analyst Rod Hall distributed to clients today, Monday, March 27, suggests the redesigned iPhone could capitalize on the massive number of iPhone owners who are hanging onto old devices, waiting for the right time and product incentives to upgrade.

Analysts have been calling this the “super cycle.”

“We believe that Street numbers still fail to capture the size of the likely replacement cycle assuming Apple delivers a compelling product this year,” Hall wrote.

Like other analysts, Hall believes that Apple may be looking to systemize consumer demand for the new redesigned iPhone, given that so many iPhone users are waiting to upgrade. Hall writes the high-end iPhone Pro with a 5.85-inch screen will likely have:

     -Edge to edge OLED 

     -Structured-light-augmented main camera to enable re-focusing of pictures

     -Front-facing 3D scanning for facial recognition, 3D camera effects, etc.

     -Possible elimination of fingerprint sensing

     -Wireless charging

     -Glass front and back

     -Very high price of $1,000+ to limit demand and offset increased cost of materials

Hall forecasts the “iPhone Pro” will cost $65 more to make than the iPhone 7, and that it will make up 41% of total iPhone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The rest of the shipments will be likely comprised of an updated version of the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus, Hall writes. Here’s what he’s expecting from those models:

     -Glass front and back

     -Possible 3D scanning, though less likely than on OLED model

     -Possible improved camera

     -Wireless charging


via JP Morgan
via J.P. Morgan

Ultimately, JPMorgan is bullish on Apple: Their models suggest 260 million iPhones sold this year — which would be a huge increase from the 211 million sold in fiscal 2016. 

What we DO know is this. When you inevitably break your new iPhone, iCracked will be there to repair it for you any time, any place.

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